Key to Virginia Victory

For the first time in decades, Virginia has a change to turn blue and go democratic. Traditionally a red state, the polls have shown Virginia as extremely close and a swing state in the 2008 election.

While this was exciting for me as a Virginia Democrat, even more exciting is that MSNBC is stating that Hampton Roads is the key area for a VA win.

Virginia is for lovers of a close race: The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll has McCain ahead by three points in Virginia, 47%-44%. To see the difference between winning and losing in the Old Dominion, check out these numbers in the poll: Obama wins Northern Virginia by a 55%-37% margin, while McCain wins the crucial Hampton Roads area by 48%-44%. But in the recent Washington Post/ABC survey, which had Obama leading in Virginia by three points among likely voters, Obama was at 59% in Northern Virginia and was up 50%-45% in Hampton Roads. This tells you that if Obama does get to 60% in NoVa, he just might win the state even if he loses every other region. But Hampton Roads may very well be the ballgame in the state. By the way, it’s worth noting in the TODAY/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll that 58% of undecided voters in the presidential contest are backing Democratic Senate candidate Mark Warner, who leads Republican Jim Gilmore 61%-28% in the poll. Can Obama reel in more of those Warner voters? Will Warner risk alienating any of those wavering presidential Democrats by using his political capital to campaign heavily for Obama in places where Obama isn’t doing well by Warner is?